Stuart_Armstrong comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (78)
I believe you can put your case even a bit more strongly than this. With this amount of data, the differences you point out are clearly within the range of random fluctuations; the human eye picks them out, but does not see the huge reference class of similarly "different" distributions. I predict with confidence over 95% that a formal statistical analysis would find no difference between the "expert" and "amateur" distributions.
I agree. I didn't do a formal statistical analysis, simply because with such little data and the potential biases, it would only give us a spurious feeling of certainty.