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Stuart_Armstrong comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong
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Perhaps their contribution is in influencing the non experts? It is very likely that the non experts base their estimates on whatever predictions respected experts have made.
Seems pretty unlikely - because you'd then expect the non-experts to have the same predicted dates as the experts, but not the same distribution of time to AI.
Also the examples I saw were mainly of non-experts saying: AI will happen around here because well, I say so. (sometimes spiced with Moore's law).