NancyLebovitz comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 17 August 2012 07:07AM

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Comment author: NancyLebovitz 16 August 2012 03:23:22PM 4 points [-]

The other stereotype is the informal 20-30 year range for any new technology: the predictor knows the technology isn't immediately available, but puts it in a range where people would still be likely to worry about it. And so the predictor gets kudos for addressing the problem or the potential, and is safely retired by the time it (doesn't) come to pass.

When I saw that, 30 years seemed long to me. Considering how little checking there is of predictions, a shorter period (no need for retirement, just give people enough time to forget) seemed more likely.

And behold:

As can be seen, the 20-30 year stereotype is not exactly born out - but a 15-25 one would be.