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Stuart_Armstrong comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong
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Did I? No.
Would I have? I'm pretty sure.
Then we'll never know - hindsight bias is the bitchiest of bitches.
For the record, I did expect this prior to reading your analysis of the data. But I also expected the data to be more in line with the Maes-Garreau law.
I'm trying to use the outside view to combat it. It is hard for me to think up examples of experts making more extreme-sounding claims than interested amateurs. The only argument the other way that I can think of is that AI itself is so crazy that seeing it occur in less that 100 years is the extreme position, and the other way around is moderate, but I don't find that very convincing.
In addition, I don't see reason to believe I'm different from lukeprog or handoflixue.
Philosophy experts are very fond of saying AI is impossible, neuroscientist experts seem to often proclaim it'll take centuries... By the time you break it down into categories and consider the different audiences and expert cultures, I think we have too little data to say much.