army1987 comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 17 August 2012 07:07AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 17 August 2012 10:09:49AM *  0 points [-]

a slight increase at 50 years

Consistent with a fluctuation in Poisson statistics, as far as I can tell. (I usually draw sqrt(N) error bars on such kind of graphs. And if we remove the data point at around X = 1950, my eyeball doesn't see anything unusual in the scatterplot around the Y = 50 line)