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gwern comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong
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Have you looked separately at the predictions made about milestones that have now happened (e.g. beat Grand Master/respectable amateur at Jeopardy!/chess/driving/backgammon/checkers/tic-tac-toe/WWII) for comparison with the future/AGI predictions?
I'm especially curious about the data for people who have made both kinds of prediction, what correlations are there, and how the predictions of things-still-to-come look when weighted by accuracy of predictions of things-that-happened-by-now.
Are there any long-term sets of predictions for anything but chess? I don't recall reading anyone ever speculating about AI and, say, Jeopardy! before info about IBM's Watson began to leak.
EDIT: XiXiDu points out on Google+ that there have been predictions and bets made on computer Go. That's true, but I'm not sure how far back they go - with computer chess, the predictions start in the 1940s or 1950s, giving around a ~50 year window. With computer Go, I expect it to be over by 2030 or so, giving a 40 year window if people started seriously prognosticating back in the '90s, well before Monte-Carlo Trees revolutionized computer Go.