V_V comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 17 August 2012 07:07AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (78)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: shminux 22 August 2012 03:31:51PM 0 points [-]

Zeroth approximation: even the experts don't know, I am not an expert, so I know even less, thus I should not make any of my decisions based on singularity-related arguments.

First approximation: find a reference class of predictions that were supposed to come true within 50 years or so, unchanged for decades, and see when (some of them) are resolved. This does not require an AI expert, but rather a historian of sorts. I am not one, and the only obvious predictions in this class are the Rapture/2nd coming and other religious end-of-the-world scares. Another standard example is the proverbial flying car. I'm sure there ought to be more examples, some of them are technological predictions that actually came true. Maybe someone here can suggest a few. Until then, I'm stuck with the zeroth approximation.

Comment author: V_V 22 August 2012 07:57:44PM 3 points [-]
  • Energy-efficient controlled nuclear fusion
  • Space colonization
  • Widespread use of videophones (to make actual videocalls)

More failed (just googled them, I didn't check): top-30-failed-technology-predictions

And successful: Ten 100-year predictions that came true

Comment author: Jesper_Ostman 03 September 2012 02:25:21AM 1 point [-]

No videocalls - what about the widespread skyping?

Comment author: V_V 03 September 2012 09:22:30AM 1 point [-]

AFAIK it's mostly used for audio calls.

Comment author: shminux 22 August 2012 08:12:53PM 0 points [-]

The interesting part is looking back and figuring out if they are in the same reference class as AGI.

Comment author: V_V 22 August 2012 09:12:44PM *  0 points [-]

Nuclear fusion is always 30-50 years in the future, so it seems very much AI-like in this respect.

I can't find many dates for space colonization, but I'm under the impression that is typically predicted either in the relatively near future (20-25 years) or in the very far future (centuries, millennia).

"Magical" nanotechnology (that is, something capable of making grey goo) is now predicted in 30-50 years, but I don't know how stable this prediction has been in the past.

AGI, fusion, space and nanotech also share the reference class of cornucopian predictions.

Comment author: CarlShulman 17 September 2012 04:16:13AM 2 points [-]

AGI, fusion, space and nanotech also share the reference class of cornucopian predictions.

Although there have been some pretty successful cornucopian predictions too: mass production, electricity, scientific agriculture (pesticides, modern crop breeding, artificial fertilizer), and audiovisual recording. By historical standards developed countries do have superabundant manufactured goods, food, music/movies/news/art, and household labor-saving devices.

Comment author: V_V 17 September 2012 10:39:33AM *  1 point [-]

Were those developments predicted decades in advance? I'm talking about relatively mainstream predictions, not predictions by some individual researcher who could have got it right by chance.

Comment author: CarlShulman 17 September 2012 11:11:46AM 2 points [-]

Reader's Digest and the like. All you needed to do was straightforward trend extrapolation during a period of exceptionally fast change in everyday standards of living.