V_V comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong
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Comments (78)
Failure of imagination, based on postulating the currently existing means of propulsion (rocket or jet engines). Here are some zero energy (but progressively harder) alternatives: buoyant force, magnetic hovering, gravitational repulsion. Or consult your favorite hard sci-fi. Though I agree, finding an alternative to jet/prop/rocket propulsion is the main issue.
If it doesn't have to fall when there is an engine malfunction, it does not have to crash.
This is actually an easy problem. Most current planes use fly-by-wire, and newer fighter planes are computer-assisted already, since they are otherwise unstable. Even now it is possible to limit the user input to "car, get me there". Learning to fly planes or drive cars will soon enough be limited to niche occupations, like racing horses.
Incidentally, computer control will also take care of the pilot/driver errors, making fender-benders and mid-air collisions a thing of the past.
Absolutely, this is a dead end.
I also can dream.