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wedrifid comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong
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Zeroth approximation: even the experts don't know, I am not an expert, so I know even less, thus I should not make any of my decisions based on singularity-related arguments.
First approximation: find a reference class of predictions that were supposed to come true within 50 years or so, unchanged for decades, and see when (some of them) are resolved. This does not require an AI expert, but rather a historian of sorts. I am not one, and the only obvious predictions in this class are the Rapture/2nd coming and other religious end-of-the-world scares. Another standard example is the proverbial flying car. I'm sure there ought to be more examples, some of them are technological predictions that actually came true. Maybe someone here can suggest a few. Until then, I'm stuck with the zeroth approximation.
That is making a decision based on singularity-related arguments. Denial isn't a privileged case that you can invoke when convenient. An argument that arguments for or against X should be ignored is an argument relating to X.
That seems to be a suitable prior to adopt if you have reason to believe that the AI related predictions are representatively sampled from the class of 50 year predictions. It's almost certainly better than going with "0.5". In the absence of any evidence whatsoever about either AI itself or those making the predictions it would even be an appropriate prediction to use for decision making. Of course if I do happen to have any additional information and ignore it then I am just going to be assigning probabilities that are subjectively objectively false. It doesn't matter how much I plead that I am just being careful.