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wedrifid comments on AI timeline predictions: are we getting better? - Less Wrong
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I do not believe that I was engaging in the reference class tennis. I tried hard to put AI into the same class as "predictions for progress of space travel or energy or neuroscience", but it just didn't fit. Space travel predictions (of the low-earth-orbit variety) slowly converged in the 40s and 50s with the development of rocket propulsion, ICBMs and later satellites. I am not familiar with the history of abundant energy predictions before and after the discovery of nuclear energy, maybe someone else is. Not sure what neuroscience predictions you are talking about, feel free to clarify.
You weren't, given the way Eliezer defines the term and the assumptions specified in your comment. I happen to disagree with you but your comment does not qualify as reference class tennis. Especially since you ended up assuming that the reference class is insufficiently populated to even be used unless people suggest things to include.