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Mitchell_Porter comments on Open Thread, August 16-31, 2012 - Less Wrong
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And therefore I am skeptical. I don't believe stories of people who beat odds of 500,000 to 1 against by calling on help from the post-singularity future. Therefore something is fishy about this story.
I wrote my comment above under the assumption of mjgeddes' honesty but I also believe they are more likely lying than not lying.
My alternative theories are: mjgeddes is just trolling without any real plan (40%), mjgeddes is planning to laugh at us all for believing something with such an explicitly low prior. (40%), something else (>19%), actually won the lottery: <1%
Yet still I feel the need to give them the benefit of the doubt. I wonder precisely when that social heuristic should be abandoned...
Anyway, selection effects. If half a million people try to do that and one succeeds, you hear from that one but not from the other 499,999
Or something is fishy about your metaphysic, yo. (I have no opinion on the matter.)