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Decius comments on [Link] Reddit, help me find some peace I'm dying young - Less Wrong

22 Post author: Konkvistador 18 August 2012 03:17PM

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Comment author: Decius 19 August 2012 01:37:11AM 2 points [-]

So, let's take bets, given those odds: 5% chance of a confirmed scam, 50% chance confirmed not a scam, and 45% chance that evidence is inconclusive.

So, you would gladly accept cash bets where you lose $5 if it is confirmed not a scam and gain $1 if it confirmed a scam. Anyone willing to bet against those odds?

Comment author: evand 19 August 2012 01:58:31AM 2 points [-]

I think you got the numbers backwards.

I would take a bet where I lose $5 if it is confirmed a scam and gain $1 if it is confirmed not a scam. (I'm assuming the bet is off if there is no confirmation either way.)

At $5 vs $1, I'm not sure the bet is worth the hassle. Make it $25 vs $5, and I'm in. I'm happy to work with payment via paypal or mailed cash or check.

Comment author: Decius 19 August 2012 02:32:54AM 1 point [-]

Myself, I judge the odds differently: I'd call it about a 20% chance of a scam, but a .2% chance of what I would call confirmation of that; and about an 80% chance that it is confirmed not to be a scam (such as by a independent verification from the CI. I can't describe the criteria which, if met, would result in a inconclusive result, so I won't take any bets on that outcome; I also won't take the small bet, and can't afford the large bet.