Myself, I judge the odds differently: I'd call it about a 20% chance of a scam, but a .2% chance of what I would call confirmation of that; and about an 80% chance that it is confirmed not to be a scam (such as by a independent verification from the CI. I can't describe the criteria which, if met, would result in a inconclusive result, so I won't take any bets on that outcome; I also won't take the small bet, and can't afford the large bet.