For what it's worth, I too haven't understood what side you are taking. Usually people bet on outcomes which they think are more probable than their opponent thinks.
I spent way too much time thinking about the same thing. It seems to me, if mtaran believes chance of scam is lower than Gwern's, they should both agree that Gwern take the larger payout for smaller chance of being correct about it being a scam.
For what it's worth I do not think that mtaran's original bet is was that great for Gwern to begin with. A $1,000 to $100 bet implies odds of scam is at 9.1%, however Gwern stated his probability is 5%-10% putting the odds at the higher end of Gwern's estimate. If Mtaran is truly confident he needs to offer at least $1,900 to $100 payout for as this will match Gwern's lowest percentage for being a scam (5%).
Saw this on reddit.
http://www.reddit.com/r/atheism/comments/ydsy5/reddit_help_me_find_some_peace_in_dying_young_im/
I couldn't help be moved by this. I felt a very strong sense that she is one of us, whoever "us" is. Looking at some of the negative comments and worst of all bad arguments people are using as reasons not to donate made me more upset.
I hope some here might join me in dismantling them. I'd also encourage those like me for who this buys a lot of warm fuzzies to donate. Though it might be wise to wait until we hear from CI or some other third party on the matter.
Edit: She has since made a comment on LW! The provided information has made me pretty much certain that this is a genuine plight.
redditors where willing to give her money to go skydiving, they don't want to give her money to buy cryonics. Sometimes I can only weep.
I think it pretty clear that promoting efficient charity in that particular thread is very unlikely to result in people giving money to better causes. Also I just plain want her to be rewarded in some small way! Note the part starting in the second paragraph that I bolded, not only did she realized what she really was, but she stepped over the entire set of pro-death rationalizations and faced the social pressure people she loved exerted on her because they think she might go to heaven ... its not her fault that a few cells in her brain went haywire before she could afford an insurance policy, I just don't want people like that not having something to show after getting so much stuff right.
2n Edit:
For anyone who just realized the universe sucks and wishes to do something about that whole people dying thing, they are welcome to engage in some optimal death defeating philanthropy by donating to The Brain Preservation Prize that has been endorsed by both Robin Hanson and Eliezer Yudkowsky.