mtaran comments on [Link] Reddit, help me find some peace I'm dying young - Less Wrong

24 [deleted] 18 August 2012 03:17PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (181)
Tags: cyronics community

Comments (181)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gwern 19 August 2012 06:52:45PM *  2 points [-]

Yes, that's my take too... I'm not sure what mtaran is doing here - maybe he doesn't care at all about the odds or which side he's taking? I don't mind betting, but I do insist that - when it's for real sums of money like $100 - that my counterparty knows what he's agreeing to. And I'm not sure mtaran does.

Comment author: mtaran 22 August 2012 04:41:18AM *  0 points [-]

Ok, I misread one of gwern's replies. My original intent was to extract money from the fact that gwern gave (from my vantage point) too high a probability of this being a scam.

Under my original version of the terms, if his P(scam) was .1:

  • he would expect to get $1000 .1 of the time
  • he would expect to lose $100 .9 of the time
  • yielding an expected value of $10

Under my original version of the terms, if his P(scam) was .05:

  • he would expect to get $1000 .05 of the time
  • he would expect to lose $100 .95 of the time
  • yielding an expected value of -$45

In the second case, he would of course not want to take that bet. I'd thus like to amend my suggested conditions to have gwern only put $52 at stake against my $1000. For any P(scam) > .05 this is a positive expected value, so I would expect it to have been satisfactory to gwern[19 August 2012 01:53:58AM].

Comment author: gwern 22 August 2012 04:26:09PM 1 point [-]

Alright then, I accept. The wager is thus:

  • on 1 January 2013, if CI confirms that she is really dying and has or is in the process of signing up with membership & life insurance, then I will pay you $52; if they confirm the opposite, confirm nothing, or she has made no progress, you will pay me $1000.
  • In case of a dispute, another LWer can adjudicate; I nominate Eliezer, Carl Shulman, Luke, or Yvain (I haven't asked but I doubt all would decline).
  • For me, paying with Paypal is most convenient, but if it isn't for you we can arrange something else (perhaps you'd prefer I pay the $52 to a third party or charity). I can accept Paypal or Bitcoin.
Comment author: Alicorn 22 August 2012 06:59:14PM 3 points [-]

she is really dying and has or is in the process of signing up with membership & life insurance

This isn't fair. She probably can't get life insurance with a terminal diagnosis. She's more likely to pay for the suspension outright.

Comment author: gwern 22 August 2012 07:34:54PM 1 point [-]

Oh right; I'm so used to cryonics funding always being life insurance I forgot it wouldn't apply here. Hm... I was trying for some sort of verification of financial commitment to being preserved. Suggestions on wording?

Comment author: philh 23 August 2012 09:43:34PM 0 points [-]

My understanding is that if CI confirms this, they're likely to set up a fund, which is what I plan to donate to.

Comment author: Alicorn 22 August 2012 07:36:52PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure at what point during the process CI would take the suspension money, so I don't know.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit