thomblake comments on How to deal with someone in a LessWrong meeting being creepy - Less Wrong

16 Post author: Douglas_Reay 09 September 2012 04:41AM

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Comment author: thomblake 10 September 2012 06:59:10PM 1 point [-]

I'm .8 confident it won't turn up anything surprising

I wonder if there's a general rule about how confident you should be there.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 10 September 2012 07:20:15PM 1 point [-]

Dunno. What confidence level would you consider appropriate?

I could have said "I'm pretty confident..." or "I don't expect it to turn up anything..." or something along those lines, but I figure I have more of a chance of calibrating my confidence levels if I state them more precisely in the first place.

Comment author: thomblake 10 September 2012 07:23:48PM 1 point [-]

I don't know. I'm mostly musing about whether "it won't turn up anything surprising" is already contained in the concept of a confidence level, or else whether there is a particular confidence level at which you expect to not be surprised.

Put another way, when do you expect to be surprised?

Comment author: TheOtherDave 10 September 2012 08:03:34PM 1 point [-]

Well, for example, if more than a third of the women responding reported never experiencing any unpleasant experiences of the sort described, that would surprise me.