sketerpot comments on [Link] Social interventions gone wrong - Less Wrong

24 [deleted] 20 August 2012 09:24AM

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Comment author: sketerpot 24 August 2012 01:44:52AM *  5 points [-]

If you got 7-8 right, there’s less than a 1% chance you were guessing.

I would like to see this article published in the (very hypothetical) World Where Nobody Just Guesses. They would surely be amused at that sky-high 1% figure, when the real number is obviously 0% since nobody was going to guess.

You can't just flip around statements about conditional probability, darn it.