I'm curious at what likelihood of AGI imminence SI or LessWrong readers would think it was a good idea to switch over to an ecoterrorist strategy. The day before the badly vetted machine is turned on is probably a good day to set the charges to blow during the night shift. The funding of this project is probably too early.
Do people think SI should be devoting more of its time and resources to corporate espionage and/or sabotage if unfriendly AI is the most pressing existential threat?
Sabotage would not work. Several reasons:
If the people working on AGI projects fear sabotage, they'll just start working on them in private. Then, you'd be lulled into a sense of complacency, thinking they're not working on it. You will fail to take action, even legal ones. Then, one day, the AGI will be released, and it will be too late.
Anybody who sets out to make an AGI without first putting a lot of thought into safety is either really risk-taking, really stupid, or really crazy. People who are big risk-takers, really stupid, or really crazy
I know people have talked about this in the past, but now seems like an important time for some practical brainstorming here. Hypothetical: the recent $15mm Series A funding of Vicarious by Good Ventures and Founders Fund sets off a wave of $450mm in funded AGI projects of approximately the same scope, over the next ten years. Let's estimate a third of that goes to paying for man-years of actual, low-level, basic AGI capabilities research. That's about 1500 man-years. Anything which can show something resembling progress can easily secure another few hundred man-years to continue making progress.
Now, if this scenario comes to pass, it seems like one of the worst-case scenarios -- if AGI is possible today, that's a lot of highly incentivized, funded research to make it happen, without strong safety incentives. It seems to depend on VCs realizing the high potential impact of an AGI project, and of the companies having access to good researchers.
The Hacker News thread suggests that some people (VCs included) probably already realize the high potential impact, without much consideration for safety:
Is there any way to reverse this trend in public perception? Is there any way to reduce the number of capable researchers? Are there any other angles of attack for this problem?
I'll admit to being very scared.