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Decius comments on The noncentral fallacy - the worst argument in the world? - Less Wrong
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I looked at it considering that the coup attempt never started, and figured that he was claiming that someone dropped a tip and stopped it.
I don't know if ~80 people could complete a coup; it would seem that if the military is loyal to the existing regime, it would fail, and if the military was disloyal no mercenaries are needed.