That only applies if there is an absence of further information. Do you make judgments about what the weather is right now by looking only at historical information, or do you look out the window?

Also, if you're going to get into category theory:

members of subcategory X of category Y are more likely to possess characteristic C

Category A is a subset of category X Category B is mutually exclusive with category X, but a subset of Y Category B is smaller than category A Given only "members of subcategory X of category Y are more likely to possess characteristic C", can you draw a conclusion about whether a random member of category A or category B is more likely to possess characteristic C?

Let characteristic C be "will perform above the 75th percentile of CEOs", category X be 'males', category A be 'males who being seriously considered for a CEO position', and category B be 'females and intersex people being considered for a CEO position'.

It's only a strawman if it isn't the exact argument being used in the boardroom.