endoself comments on Counterfactual resiliency test for non-causal models - Less Wrong

21 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 30 August 2012 05:30PM

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Comment author: taw 30 August 2012 06:54:29PM 11 points [-]

It seems rather easy to mess with the inputs T. Weather conditions or continental drifts could confine pre-agricultural humans to hunting essentially indefinitely

This is sort of amazing, but after a couple million years of hunting and gathering humans developed agriculture independently within a few thousand years in multiple locations (the count is at least 7, possibly more).

This really doesn't have a good explanation, it's too ridiculous to be a coincidence, and there's nothing remotely like a plausible common cause.

Comment author: endoself 30 August 2012 08:57:08PM 18 points [-]

There's a very plausible common cause. Humans likely developed the traits that allowed them to easily invent agriculture during the last glacial period. The glacial period ended 10 000 years ago, so that's when the climate became amenable to agriculture.

Comment author: [deleted] 30 August 2012 10:06:04PM 2 points [-]

Yes, I had always assumed that was the cause. (Which might have some kind of bearing on Great Filter-like reasonings.)

Comment author: taw 31 August 2012 10:22:48AM 0 points [-]

Agriculture developed very far from regions most affected by glaciation, and in very diverse climates, so any climatic common cause is pretty dubious.