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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Counterfactual resiliency test for non-causal models - Less Wrong
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Both Robin's model and Ray's include Moore's law as a part of their input data, so they have at least as many trials as it does. You can argue they don't have as much info in the early eras, but simply counting the number of data points doesn't put Moore's law on top.
Robin's model takes as a given that periods of exponential growth occur and argues for a pattern in the length and relative rate of periods of exponential growth. Thus, trials are either entire periods of exponential growth or the transitions between them.