taw comments on Counterfactual resiliency test for non-causal models - Less Wrong
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Well, we know pretty well that even when societies were in very close contact, they rarely adopted each other's technology if it wasn't already similar to what they've been doing.
See this for example:
If in this close contact scenario agriculture didn't spread, it's a huge stretch to expect very low level contact to make it happen.
(nods) Yup, if that theory is true, then the observed multiple distinct onset points of agriculture becomes more mysterious.