MugaSofer comments on Counterfactual resiliency test for non-causal models - Less Wrong

21 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 30 August 2012 05:30PM

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Comment author: MugaSofer 20 September 2012 09:47:35AM *  0 points [-]

aliens showed up with gifts of hyper-advanced technology at the exact moment that Moore's Law would have predicted that level

What? No!

My point was that any game-changer, positive or negative, disrupts Moore's law. Alien hypertech is one such game changer.

EDIT: edited for clarity.

Comment author: MaoShan 21 September 2012 02:05:47AM 0 points [-]

I know, I was just playfully nullifying the game-changer. (Although, aliens restoring Moore's law with hypertech is only slightly less likely than aliens with hypertech at any other point in time.)

Comment author: MugaSofer 21 September 2012 12:03:47PM 0 points [-]

Ah, I see.

Wait, what? Aliens restoring Moore's law is vastly less likely than the (admittedly minuscule) probability of them showing up at some other time.

Comment author: MaoShan 22 September 2012 03:39:13AM 0 points [-]

So it's a...vast minisculity?

Comment author: MugaSofer 23 September 2012 10:17:32AM 0 points [-]

Vastly minuscule, yes.