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maia comments on [Link] Short story by Yvain - Less Wrong
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I was hoping this would end with Jesus saying "Oh yeah? And how many mental patients hallucinate the Devil telling them to use Bayesian reasoning to conclude that they aren't actually Jesus?"
But on second thought, that's not much evidence at all, comparatively.
If anything, it's strong evidence the other way. If, in the process of trying to figure out whether you're really Jesus, you find yourself using a statistical formula not discovered until the eighteenth century CE, you should probably err on the side of "no."
I don't think the mental-asylum Jesuses believe that they live in Jesus' time, so no contradiction with 18th century math arises.
Well, if the Jesus of the story is reasoning from the evidence favoring his being the first Jesus, the position is going to take a substantial hit.
As Jesus is supposed to have risen from the dead and be immortal, I still don't think the hit is that strong.