# army1987 comments on Rationality Quotes September 2012 - Less Wrong

7 03 September 2012 05:18AM

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Comment author: 02 September 2012 12:27:26AM 9 points [-]

Wait, 32% probability of dying “ain't that dangerous”? Are you f***ing kidding me?

Comment author: 02 September 2012 12:37:46AM 22 points [-]

If I expect to be hit by a train, I certainly don't expect a ~68% survival chance. Not intuitively, anyways.

Comment author: 02 September 2012 04:25:22PM 17 points [-]

I'm guessing that even if you survive, your quality of life is going to take a hit. Accounting for this will probably bring our intuitive expectation of harm closer to the actual harm.

Comment author: 02 September 2012 10:20:58PM 3 points [-]

Hmmm, I can't think of any way of figuring out what probability I would have guessed if I had to guess before reading that. Damn you, hindsight bias!

(Maybe you could spell out and rot-13 the second figure in the ad...)

Comment author: 02 September 2012 11:20:29PM *  2 points [-]

I would expect something like that chance. Being hit by a train will be very similar to landing on your side or back after falling 3 to 10 meters (I'm guessing most people hit by trains are at or near a train station, so the impacts will be relatively slow). So the fatality rate should be similar.

Of course, that prediction gives a fatality rate of only 5-20%, so I'm probably missing something.

Comment author: 03 September 2012 12:36:48AM 4 points [-]

There's the whole crushing and high voltage shock thing, depending on how you land.

Comment author: 03 September 2012 10:49:59PM 1 point [-]

high voltage shock thing

Well, lightning strikes kill less than half the people they hit.

Comment author: 04 September 2012 01:17:37PM 1 point [-]

Lightning strikes usually do not involve physical impacts - I think "falling from 3-10 meters and getting struck by lightning" would be worse. In addition, the length of the current flow depends on the high voltage system.

Comment author: 04 September 2012 01:48:45PM 1 point [-]

Lightning strikes usually do not involve physical impacts - I think "falling from 3-10 meters and getting struck by lightning" would be worse.

This seems overwhelmingly likely.