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army1987 comments on Rationality Quotes September 2012 - Less Wrong
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If I expect to be hit by a train, I certainly don't expect a ~68% survival chance. Not intuitively, anyways.
Hmmm, I can't think of any way of figuring out what probability I would have guessed if I had to guess before reading that. Damn you, hindsight bias!
(Maybe you could spell out and rot-13 the second figure in the ad...)