Politics Discussion Thread September 2012

Multiheaded

The last thread didn't fare too badly, I think; let's make it a monthly tradition. (Me, I'm more interested in thinking about real-world policies or philosophies, actual and possible, rather than AI design or physics, and I suspect that many fine, non-mind-killed folks reading LW also are - but might be ashamed to admit it!)

Quoth OrphanWilde:

Top-level comments should introduce arguments; responses should be responses to those arguments.
Upvote and downvote based on whether or not you find an argument convincing in the context in which it was raised. This means if it's a good argument against the argument it is responding to, not whether or not there's a good/obvious counterargument to it; if you have a good counterargument, raise it. If it's a convincing argument, and the counterargument is also convincing, upvote both. If both arguments are unconvincing, downvote both.
A single argument per comment would be ideal; as MixedNuts points out here, it's otherwise hard to distinguish between one good and one bad argument, which makes the upvoting/downvoting difficult to evaluate.
In general try to avoid color politics; try to discuss political issues, rather than political parties, wherever possible.

Let's try to stick to those rules - and maybe make some more if sorely needed.

Oh, and I think that the "Personal is Political" stuff like gender relations, etc also belongs here.

Quoth OrphanWilde:

Top-level comments should introduce arguments; responses should be responses to those arguments.
Upvote and downvote based on whether or not you find an argument convincing in the context in which it was raised. This means if it's a good argument against the argument it is responding to, not whether or not there's a good/obvious counterargument to it; if you have a good counterargument, raise it. If it's a convincing argument, and the counterargument is also convincing, upvote both. If both arguments are unconvincing, downvote both.
A single argument per comment would be ideal; as MixedNuts points out here, it's otherwise hard to distinguish between one good and one bad argument, which makes the upvoting/downvoting difficult to evaluate.
In general try to avoid color politics; try to discuss political issues, rather than political parties, wherever possible.

Let's try to stick to those rules - and maybe make some more if sorely needed.

Oh, and I think that the "Personal is Political" stuff like gender relations, etc also belongs here.

Thanks for your patience and civility.

I was never in doubt about a determined central bank's ABILITY to PASS a monetary target, not hit it like a bulls eye, but pass it like a tape at the end of a race. The runners keep running and may need sometime to slow down :)

A central bank can create a depression. Increase the rates to a level where no conceivable investment is feasible.

A central bank can create hyper inflation. Announce that you are willing to buy everything and start buying it. Somewhere along that route, measured nominal GDP would exceed the target laid out for it. So, the central bank can hit the target, by limiting its craziness.

My doubt in regards market monetarism was - is this a good thing to do, in the long run?

For supply side vs demand side issues, I guess the question to ask is if the productivity measurement is correct. If TFP is 1 % and you're aiming at 6% NGDP growth, you're just hurting the economy. Maybe, (don't know for sure), britain was aiming at too high a growth rate.

I too have no doubt that the central bank can cause hyperinflation or severe deflation. The question is, can it thread the needle and get levels where it wants them to be? If during a velocity shock like 2007-8, the only way to get 5% NGDP growth is to alternate between 200% NGDP growth and -47.5% NGDP growth, then it seems like the cure is worse than the disease, in terms of providing the kind of stable monetary expectations that MMs agree are necessary for economic growth, investment, etc.

Suppose we have a patient with a fever (or pneumonia). The doctor ... (read more)