mattnewport comments on The mind-killer - Less Wrong

23 Post author: ciphergoth 02 May 2009 04:49PM

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Comment author: AlanCrowe 02 May 2009 08:37:48PM *  -1 points [-]

So if you place any non-negligible value on future generations whose existence is threatened, reducing existential risk has to be the best possible contribution to humanity you are in a position to make.

This sentence smuggles in the assumption that we are in a position to reduce existential risk.

Two big risk are global warming and nuclear war.

The projections for large changes in climate depend on continuing growth in wealth and population in order to get the high levels of carbon dioxide emission needed to create the change. If it really goes horribly wrong, we are still looking at a self limiting problem with billions dying but billions living on in nuclear powered prosperity at higher latitudes. It is not an existential risk.

Nuclear war in the next hundred years is shaping up to be 2nd rank nations duking it out with 20kilo-ton fission weapons, not 200kilo-ton fusion weapons. That is enough to change building codes in ways that make current earthquake precautions seem cheap, but it is a long way short of an existential risk.

Existential risk might be large, but it comes from the unkown unkowns, not the known unkowns, and not even kowning that we don't know there is nothing useful we can do beyond maintaining a willingness to recognise a new danger if it makes its possibility known.

Comment author: mattnewport 02 May 2009 09:37:41PM 4 points [-]

I agree with your characterization of the risks of global warming and nuclear war. I get the impression that people allow the reasonably high probability of a few degrees of warming or a few nuclear attacks to unduly influence their estimates of the probability of true existential risk from these sources.

In both cases I'm much more receptive to discussions of harm reduction than to scaremongering about 'the end of the world as we know it'. The twentieth century has quite a few examples of events that caused 10s of millions of deaths and yet did not represent existential risks. Moderate global warming or a few nuclear detonations in or over major cities would be highly disruptive events and would have a high cost in human lives and are certainly legitimate concerns but they are not existential risks and talking of them as such is unhelpful in my opinion.