Comment on The mind-killer

Mon, 04 May 2009 09:57:14 GMT

I don't know if inside view forecasting can ever be more reliable than outside view forecasting. It seems that insiders as a general and very robust rule tend to be strongly overconfident, and see all kinds of reason why their particular instance is different and will have better outcome than the reference class.

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/beware-the-insi.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting

Discuss