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Vladimir_Nesov comments on The mind-killer - Less Wrong
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You clipped out "to within an order of magnitude". I stated that my best-guess probability for human extinction within a century was 10^(-6 +/- 4). This is a huge confusion - 9 orders of magnitude on the probability - yet still means that I have over 80% confidence that the probability is under 10^-2. There is no contradiction here.
(It also means that, despite believing that extinction is probably one-in-a-million, I should treat it as more like one-in-a-thousand, because averaging over the meta-probability distribution naturally weights the high end. It would be a pity if this effect, of uncertainty inflating small probabilities, resulted in social feedback. When you hear me say "we should treat it as a .1% risk", I am implicitly stating that all models I can credit give a significantly lower risk. If your best model's risk-estimate is .01%, I am actually telling you that I think your model overestimates the risk.)
So, where did you get those numbers from? 10^-6? 10^-2? Why not, say, 1-10^-6 instead? Gut feeling again, and that's inevitable. You either name a number, or make decisions without the help of even this feeble model, choosing directly. From what people on this site know, they believe differently from you.
I have one of the lowest estimates, 30% for not killing off 90% of the population by 2100. Most of it comes from Unfriendly AI, with estimate of 50% of AGI foom by 2070, or 70% by 2100 (expectation of relatively low-hanging fruit, it levels off as time goes on) if nothing goes wrong with the world, 3/4 of that to Unfriendly AI, given my understanding of how hard it is to find the right answer from many efficient world-eating possibilities, and human irrationality, making it likely that the person to invent the first mind won't think about the consequences. That's already 55% total extinction risk, add some more for biological (at least, human-inhabiting) weapons, such as an engineered pandemic (not total extinction, but easily 90%), and new possible goodies the future has to offer. It'll only get worse until it gets better. On second thought, I should lower my confidence from these explicit models, they seem too much like planning. Make that 50%.