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army1987 comments on Call for Anonymous Narratives by LW Women and Question Proposals (AMA) - Less Wrong
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Likewise, the original question depends on their confidence that you're not overestimating/lying about the probability they will get the $1,000,000.
Yes. EY's introduction of "immediately" is what changes the equation for me.... I might well choose $500 in my hand right now over the promise of $1million in ten years, whereas I probably would not choose the promise of $500 in an hour over the promise of $1 million in ten years.
Would you also choose $1 million in ten years over $1000 in an hour?
And would you choose $1000 in an hour over $500 right now?
If the answer to both questions is yes (and I think both are reasonable) then we may have an example of circular preferences on our hands.
Probably.
Ooh. That's a toughie.
I suspect in practice it depends critically on all kinds of subliminal aspects of the situation... that is, which way I choose can probably be manipulated by the exact choice of words, what the person is wearing, yadda yadda. My guess is that I choose $500 right now for most versions of the choice, but $1000 for a substantial minority.