It was an in person conversation. Her phrasing may actually have been tighter. My extension to her explanation is that if you have probabilities for aspects of a prediction, then there's math so that you can derive a probability for the whole prediction.

Her specific problem is that she'd like to post articles, but she's put off by having to make sufficiently upvoted comments to do so. I've told her that if she writes an article I'll post it with attribution for her.

I don't have a general problem with the 20 karma requirement for posting articles.