gwern comments on Chief Probability Officer - Less Wrong

11 Post author: lukeprog 09 September 2012 11:45PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (19)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gwern 10 September 2012 12:23:45AM 24 points [-]

One of the interesting bits of The Theory That Would Not Die is that the actuaries - the people with the existing set of certifications, which you seem to find so repugnant - were some of the only Bayesians in the world, they just didn't use that term or realize that's what their methods were based on.

Comment author: lukeprog 10 September 2012 01:40:51AM 2 points [-]
Comment author: [deleted] 12 September 2012 10:19:26PM 0 points [-]
Comment author: gwern 12 September 2012 11:50:40PM 0 points [-]

IIRC, the book gives it as a much more direct meaning: the original actuaries were forced by Teddy Roosevelt or someone's programs to quickly come up with policies for things that had never been covered before and so could not be given clear frequentist justifications, so they used Bayesian methods.