DanArmak comments on The Yudkowsky Ambition Scale - Less Wrong

38 Post author: loup-vaillant 12 September 2012 03:08PM

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Comment author: DanArmak 12 September 2012 06:34:59PM 12 points [-]

2 has been done many times in human history (for some reasonably definition of what companies count as "previous Apples"). 9 has never been done. Why do you think 9 is no harder than 2, assuming it is possible?

Comment author: Manfred 12 September 2012 08:04:24PM 0 points [-]

9 has been done many times in human history too, for some reasonable definition of "create a better artificial optimizer."

Anyhow, to answer your question, I'm just guessing, based on calling "difficulty" something like marginal resources per rate of success. If you gave me 50 million dollars and said "make 2 happen," versus if you gave me 50 million dollars and said "make 9 happen," basically. Sure, someone is more likely to do 2 in the next few years than 9, ceteris paribus. But a lot more resources are on 2 (though there's a bit of a problem with this metric since 9 scales worse with resources than 2).

Comment author: evand 12 September 2012 08:06:51PM 1 point [-]

That's why 9 specifies "recursively self-improving", not "build a better optimizer", or even recursively improving optimizer. The computer counts for recursively improving, imho, it just needs some help, so it's not self-improving.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 12 September 2012 09:48:44PM 13 points [-]

Presumably, if anyone ever solves 9, so did their mom.
Which is not in fact intended as a "your mom" joke, but I don't see any way around it being read that way.

Comment author: Manfred 12 September 2012 08:17:40PM 0 points [-]

If self-improving intelligence is somwehere on the hierarchy of "better optimizers," you just have to make better optimizers, and eventually you can make a self-improving optimizer. Easy peasy :P Note that this used the assumption the it's possible, and requires you to be charitable about interpreting "hierarchy of optimizers."