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JulianMorrison comments on Essay-Question Poll: Dietary Choices - Less Wrong
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Now think how many horses there were in 1900.
Hint: at roughly the same time, canned dog food was invented.
I found this page really interesting: http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=144565
How many people would've guessed that there are ~twice more horses in Europe as of a few years ago than in 1900? Or that current US horse population is ~30% of its historical peak?
I think vat meat would take long enough to catch on that the decline in the meat animal population could be accounted for by slowing the breeding rate.
I agree, that is a possibility.
Regardless, the current population of livestock accounts for a tiny share of the total over time so what happens to the animals currently alive is less important than the long-term effects of a change in people's diets.