cousin_it comments on Open Thread, September 15-30, 2012 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 15 September 2012 04:41AM

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Comment author: cousin_it 18 September 2012 02:36:46PM *  5 points [-]

Reposting a comment I made on Yvain's livejournal:

There's a standard argument about "efficient charity" that says you should concentrate all your donations on one charity, because presumably you have preferences over the total amounts of money donated to each charity (not just your own donations), so choosing something like a 50/50 split would be too sensitive to other people's donations.

I just realized that the argument applies in equal force to politics. If you're not using "beliefs as attire" but actually care about politics, your participation in politics should be 100% extremist. That's troubling.

Comment author: [deleted] 18 September 2012 02:51:40PM 5 points [-]

You might be an extreme centrist. Or an extreme pragmatic. Not all extremists are the "take some idea to its (il)logical conclusion and start blowing things up" type.

Comment author: Manfred 29 September 2012 05:35:40AM *  0 points [-]

I believe the point is that while your personal beliefs may lie at any point in some high-dimensional space, if you're getting involved in politics in some anonymous way you should throw all your support behind the single "best" group, even if, like in two-party politics, that means supporting a group you have significant differences with. Non-anonymity (nonymity) changes things, leading to behavior like lobbying multiple parties.

I don't really find it that disturbing, but it does get a little weird when you remember how bad humans are at separating acts from mental states.

Comment author: Desrtopa 18 September 2012 04:20:55PM 3 points [-]

Impact of charitable donations is, at least within the domains that most people can give, directly proportional to the size of the donations. It's not at all clear, however, that extremist participation in politics produces a greater impact in the desired direction than casual participation.

I think that in some cases, it probably does, whereas in others it does not.

Comment author: Emile 18 September 2012 03:14:24PM 3 points [-]

It probably depends of the decision process you're trying to influence:

  • If you're voting for a candidate, you don't have any incentive to vote in a way more extreme than your preferences - with more than two candidates, you can have strategic voting which is often the opposite incentive, i.e. voting for a candidate you like less that has more chances of making it.

  • If a bureaucrat is trying to maximize utility by examining people's stated preferences, then you can have an incentive to claim extreme preferences for the reasons Yvain gives.

Informal discussions of what social norms should be look more like the second case.

Elected politicians have to deal with the two systems, on one side they want to take a moderate position to get the maximum number of voters (median voter etc.), on the other hand once elected they have an incentive to claim to be more extreme when negotiating in their constituents' interest.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 21 September 2012 01:54:10AM 0 points [-]

Could you spell out what you mean by extremist, and how the analogous argument goes?

If there are three candidates, then yes, you should give all your support to one candidate, even if you hate one and don't distinguish between the other two.

But that hardly makes you an extremist. I don't see any reason that this kind of argument says you should support the same party in every election, or for every seat in a particular election, or that you should support that party's position on every issue. Even if you are an extremist and, say, want to pull the country leftward on all issues, it's not obvious whether equal amounts of support (say, money) to a small far-left party will be more effective than to a center-left party. Similarly, if your participation in politics is conversation with people, it's not obvious that always arguing left-wing positions is the most effective way to draw people to the left. It may be that demonstrating a willingness to compromise and consider details may make you more convincing. In fact, I do think the answer is that the main power individuals have in arguing about politics is to shift the Overton window; but I think that is a completely different reason than the charity argument.


and then I looked up your comment on LJ and the comment it replies to and I strongly disagree with your comment. This has nothing to do with the charity argument. Whether this argument is correct is different matter. I think the Overton window is a different phenomenon. I think the argument to take extreme positions to negotiate compromises better applies to politicians than to ordinary people. But their actions are not marginal and so this is clearly different from the charity argument.

Comment author: cousin_it 21 September 2012 08:39:11AM *  2 points [-]

I agree with everything in your comment. "Extremist" was a bad choice of word, maybe "single-minded" would be better. What I meant was, for example, if success at convincing people on any given political issue is linearly proportional to effort, you should spend all your effort arguing just one issue. More generally, if we look at all the causes in the world where the resulting utility to you depends on aggregated actions of many people and doesn't include a term for your personal contribution, the argument says you should support only one such cause.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 22 September 2012 01:26:32AM *  2 points [-]

What I meant was, for example, if success at convincing people on any given political issue is linearly proportional to effort, you should spend all your effort arguing just one issue.

But this isn't at all likely. For one thing you probably have a limited number of family and friends who highly trust your opinions, so your effectiveness (i.e., derivative of success) at convincing people on any given political issue will start out high and quickly take a dive as you spend more time on that issue.

Comment author: wedrifid 22 September 2012 06:56:16AM 1 point [-]

But this isn't at all likely. For one thing you probably have a limited number of family and friends who highly trust your opinions, so your effectiveness (i.e., derivative of success) at convincing people on any given political issue will start out high and quickly take a dive as you spend more time on that issue.

I'm inclined to agree. A variant of the strategy would be to spend a lot of time arguing for other positions that are carefully selected to agree with and expand eloquently on the predicted opinions of the persuasion targets.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 21 September 2012 05:44:07PM 0 points [-]

Yes, that is the charity argument. Yes, you should not give money both to a local candidate and to a national candidate simultaneously.

But the political environment changes so much from election to election, it is not clear you should give money to the same candidate or the same single-issue group every cycle.

Moreover, the personal environment changes much more rapidly, and I do not agree with the hypothesis that success at convincing people depends linearly with effort. In particular, changing the subject to the more important issue is rarely worth the opportunity cost and may well have the wrong effect on opinion. If effort toward the less important issue is going to wear out your ability to exert effort for the more important issue an hour from now, then effort may be somewhat fungible. But effort is nowhere near as fungible as money, the topic of the charity argument.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 21 September 2012 09:29:05AM *  0 points [-]

Value of information about which political side is more marginally valuable makes unbiased discussion a cause that's potentially more valuable than advocacy for any of the political sides, and charities are similarly on the same scene. So the rule is not "focus on a single element out of each class of activities", the choice isn't limited to any given class of activities. Applied to politics, the rule can be stated only as, "If advocacy of political positions is the most marginally valuable thing you can do, focus on a single side."

Comment author: cousin_it 21 September 2012 11:16:44AM 0 points [-]

Yeah, I agree. I wonder how many people would subscribe to the rule in full generality.