Kindly comments on Open Thread, September 15-30, 2012 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 15 September 2012 04:41AM

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Comment author: ArisKatsaris 25 September 2012 10:56:52AM *  0 points [-]

It's an amusing paradox and I don't know what the standard solution to it is, but I resolve it easily in my mind by tabooing the word 'surprise', and replacing with "suddenly obtaining certain knowledge of its date". Then it becomes more of a silly game of words.

Assuming the test is certain to take place (it's the law!), the students can't be suprised on Friday, but on Thursday they will either be "surprised" to locate the test on Thursday or "surprised" to locate the test on Friday. The Thursday (or Wednesday or Tuesday or Monday) surprise will therefore be genuine, though no student can be suprised on Friday. They can be "surprised" on Thursday about either a Thursday or a Friday test, though.

The day-by-day progression is a distraction btw. The paradox can be replaced by having five cups, a ball under one of them, lifting them one by one in whatever order. If you've lifted three empty cups, you'll then either be "surprised" to locate the ball under the cup you lift next, or "surprised" to locate it definitively under the cup you haven't lifted. Both of these will be a surprise, a surprise occurring at the next-to-last cup.

Comment author: Kindly 25 September 2012 12:05:58PM 1 point [-]

Furthermore, if you take the "information content" approach to surprise, then you would be more surprised by a test on Monday than by a test on Thursday; but this is made up for by the fact that on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, you were very slightly surprised that there wasn't a test. Total surprise is conserved.