MBlume comments on Allais Hack -- Transform Your Decisions! - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MBlume 03 May 2009 10:37PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (19)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: MBlume 04 May 2009 08:00:51PM *  2 points [-]

I don't have primary literature with me now, so this is from the Wikipedia article

Allais asserted that, presented with the choice between 1A and 1B, most people would choose 1A, and presented with the choice between 2A and 2B, most people would choose 2B. This has been borne out in various studies involving hypothetical and small monetary payoffs, and recently with health outcomes.

You don't expect to be cheated in a hypothetical. You don't expect to be cheated by a doctor giving probabilities of different outcomes.

ETA: Here's an abstract, but the paper itself is gated.

ETA2: Paper!