Not literally God, just faith in the idea that bad things above a certain threshold somehow aren't allowed to happen to you. Sometimes the power is thought to be in some other, real or unreal entity, like the state or the fed or democracy or science or whatever. And sometimes it's not. It's just a bias, floating around in your thoughts in ways you aren't terribly aware of.
He wasn't generalizing from one example. He cites many example of people talking and thinking like this.
I'm going to go ahead and take his side on this one. It's just a bias. It's a cognitive malfunction of your brain that you might be able to work your way around by reframing if you remain vigilantly aware of it, or you construct a formula (like an actuary would) and operate according to that formula with as little input from the relevant buggy software in your brain as possible, but the bias is still there. For the vast, vast, vast, majority of people that bias is here to stay.
Like scope sensitivity, I really don't think there's much fixing it (without upgrading the hardware) and I just basically don't believe people who think they have accomplished this via mental discipline. It's possible, but it seems extremely unlikely. What's more, a claim like that seems motivated by exactly the same kind of optimistic bias.
http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2012/09/the_nanny_state_didnt_show_up.html
Saw this and I thought it went so well with Beyond the Reach of God and Blue and Green on Regulation that I just had to post it here. It definitely articulates some of the frustrations I've had with people who break out in a rash of Libertarianism over one (on the surface) silly law being passed and reported on and then not:
A. Using the Principle of Charity to see what the opponent is really about. Even if it's silly, it shouldn't be *that* silly. See Policy Debates Should Not Appear to be One Sided.
B. Considering how it applies in the larger context. You should be free to buy big sodas but not [insert literally anything the government regulates here, which is a ton of stuff]. Why is this sillier than the other thing? See anything Less Wrong has written about the absurdity heuristic.
C. Thinking about your source of information, noting the feeling it's giving you, why it's giving you that feeling. Then realizing that it was specifically designed to give that feeling. If they did this, then dropping the line of thought or, deciding that they're so much smarter than the people in charge. *And then forgetting that the fact that they feel that was part of the plan of those who reported it, too.* Seriously, The Last Psychiatrist is great for that stuff.