thomblake comments on New study on choice blindness in moral positions - Less Wrong
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The second of these claims would be extremely surprising to me, even if weakened to '90% of the time' to allow for figures of speech. Even a success rate of 50% would be startling. I don't believe it.
It's not surprising to me, though I imagine it's vulnerable to massive selection effect. My observation is about people who actually internalized being a non-smoker, not those who tried to do so and failed. I'm not surprised those two things are extremely highly correlated. So it might not be any better as strategy advice than "the best way to quit smoking is to successfully quit smoking".