Any existential risk angles to the US presidential election?

Stuart_Armstrong

Don't let your minds be killed, but I was wondering if there were any existential risk angles to the coming American election (if there isn't, then I'll simply retreat to raw, enjoyable and empty tribalism).

I can see three (quite tenuous) angles:

Obama seems more likely to attempt to get some sort of global warming agreement. While not directly related to Xrisks per se, this would lead to better global coordination and agreement, which improves the outlook for a lot of other Xrisks. However, pretty unlikely to succeed.
I have a mental image that Republicans would be more likely to invest in space exploration. This is a lot due to Newt Gingrich, I have to admit, and to the closeness between civilian and military space projects, the last of which are more likely to get boosts in Republican governments.
If we are holding out for increased population rationality as being a helping factor for some Xrisks, then the fact the the Republicans have gone so strongly anti-science is certainly a bad sign. But on the other hand, its not clear whether them winning or losing the election is more likely to improve the general environment for science among their supporters.

But these all seem weak factors. So, less wronger, let me know: are the things I should care about in the election, or can I just lie back and enjoy it as a piece of interesting theatre?

I can see three (quite tenuous) angles:

Obama seems more likely to attempt to get some sort of global warming agreement. While not directly related to Xrisks per se, this would lead to better global coordination and agreement, which improves the outlook for a lot of other Xrisks. However, pretty unlikely to succeed.
I have a mental image that Republicans would be more likely to invest in space exploration. This is a lot due to Newt Gingrich, I have to admit, and to the closeness between civilian and military space projects, the last of which are more likely to get boosts in Republican governments.
If we are holding out for increased population rationality as being a helping factor for some Xrisks, then the fact the the Republicans have gone so strongly anti-science is certainly a bad sign. But on the other hand, its not clear whether them winning or losing the election is more likely to improve the general environment for science among their supporters.

But these all seem weak factors. So, less wronger, let me know: are the things I should care about in the election, or can I just lie back and enjoy it as a piece of interesting theatre?

Democracy in a multicultural place like modern America is increasingly a sham. When you have, say, black people voting as a 96% bloc, it becomes clear that this is not an abstract choice so much as a statement of tribal identity and power. And in response to this, other groups form tribal blocs. Well guess what: even you rationalist white guys aren't exempt from this dynamic! Democracy is a nice idea, but it is trumped for most people by deeper tribal and religious allegiances. Multicultural democracy simply devolves into contests between competing tribes. And if you don't think of yourself as a member of a tribe, then you will simply lose power. So I first identify my tribal allegiances, then I look at the candidates and ask: Which one will give me and my tribe more power? To me this is the correct and rational way to vote, and it has nothing to do with abstract issues like "existential risk." The existential risk that matters most to me is tribal disempowerment!

The correct and rational way to vote is to stay home and do something productive instead, unless you're a weirdo like me who gets some utility (entertainment value?) from spending hours researching candidates in the rueful knowledge that there's effectively zero probability of actually affecting anything via the effort.

The only way I can see to eliminate the tragedy of the commons of voting (anybody can have more personal time for themselves at the cost of making the commons of "how good is the election outcome" worse) would be allowing people to... (read more)

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Any existential risk angles to the US presidential election?

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Any existential risk angles to the US presidential election?

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