John_Maxwell_IV comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Alicorn 04 May 2009 06:59PM

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Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 04 May 2009 08:19:28PM 0 points [-]

In my opinion, a more interesting question is what game Omega can devise in which revealing your probability estimate is part of the winning strategy. If he asks you to name even odds and bet with him, for example, you could name ridiculous odds if you wanted more money. The only thing I can think of is for Omega to pour out part of the jar and reward you depending on your deviation from the correct percentage.

Comment author: Peter_de_Blanc 04 May 2009 09:10:27PM 5 points [-]

You could use a proper scoring rule.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 04 May 2009 09:43:55PM 1 point [-]

A more comprehensive description:

T. Gneiting & A. E. Raftery (2007). `Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation'. Journal of the American Statistical Association 102(477):359-378. [pdf]