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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
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D. Bamber and I.R. Goodman, (2000). New uses of second order probability techniques in estimating critical probabilities in command & control decision-making. [abstract] [pdf].
Please cite at least the name of the paper, preferably add a link to its abstract. It's not apparent that second order probability is directly related to this article.