Vladimir_Nesov comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Alicorn 04 May 2009 06:59PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 04 May 2009 09:32:00PM 0 points [-]

the degree of surprise doesn't just depend on the raw probability, but also only the number of other possible outcomes under consideration.

Well, maybe it isn't, but it should.