billswift comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (127)
"doesn't just depend on the raw probability" - Correct. It also depends strongly on how reliable you think your estimate of the probability is. That is, your confidence interval.