billswift comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Alicorn 04 May 2009 06:59PM

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Comment author: billswift 04 May 2009 10:05:58PM 0 points [-]

"doesn't just depend on the raw probability" - Correct. It also depends strongly on how reliable you think your estimate of the probability is. That is, your confidence interval.