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billswift comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
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... but it isn't, because the degree of surprise doesn't just depend on the raw probability, but also only the number of other possible outcomes under consideration. That Omega uses the term "lilac" may reasonably be taken as evidence that the space of color outcomes should be treated as finely divided.
ETA: I guess the mistake is in comparing feelings of surprise across outcomes with the same probability embedded in event spaces with different cardinalities.
"doesn't just depend on the raw probability" - Correct. It also depends strongly on how reliable you think your estimate of the probability is. That is, your confidence interval.