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MichaelBishop comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
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Excuse me for making such a minor point, but I don't think we have to give the same probability for each color. We have to guess at Omega's motivation before we can guess at the distribution of bead colors in the jar. Do we have previous knowledge of Omegas? How about Omegas bearing bead filled jars?
I was assuming that you have never met an Omega, much less one bearing a bead jar, and that you know all the standard facts about Omega (e.g. what he says is true, etc.)