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MichaelBishop comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong
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Well, I suppose you do have information inasmuch as you know what colors are. But if your probability for red is .5, on the basis of knowing that it's a color alone, then you have to have the same probabilities for blue and yellow and green and brown and so forth if Omega asks for those too, and you can be Dutch booked like crazy.
Excuse me for making such a minor point, but I don't think we have to give the same probability for each color. We have to guess at Omega's motivation before we can guess at the distribution of bead colors in the jar. Do we have previous knowledge of Omegas? How about Omegas bearing bead filled jars?
I was assuming that you have never met an Omega, much less one bearing a bead jar, and that you know all the standard facts about Omega (e.g. what he says is true, etc.)