Cyan comments on Bead Jar Guesses - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Alicorn 04 May 2009 06:59PM

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Comment author: Cyan 05 May 2009 02:18:34AM 1 point [-]

That's a shame, because uncertainty about the number of possible outcomes is a real and challenging statistical problem. See for example Inference for the binomial N parameter: A hierarchical Bayes approach (abstract)(full paper pdf) by Adrian Raftery. Raftery's prior for the number of outcomes is 1/N, but you can't use that for coherent betting.